admin
impacts of LAND FOREST CONVERSION TO OIL PALM PLANTATION ON THE indonesian MACROeconomy AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Rina Oktaviani1, Eka Puspitawati2, Noer Azam Achsani3 and Sahara2
[1] Professor at Economics Department and Director of International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB),
2 Lecturer at Economics Department and Researcher of International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)
3 Professor at Economics Department and Senior Reasercher of International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)
Corresponding author: Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya.
ABSTRACT
The deforestation and degradation of tropical forests including land forest conversion result in a range of negative impacts, such as soil erosion, biodiversity loss and climate change. However, the loss of forests also results economic benefits, such as the production of food and estate crops. This paper investigates impacts of land forest conversion particularly to oil palm plantation on the national macroeconomy performance and household income distribution. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of forest, this study results that although land change increases real GDP and real household consumption, the positive impact is very slight. This study also shows a decresing real income of some rural households. Land forest conversion and productivity improvement in oil palm sector can be slightly better impact on Indonesian economic performance. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will slightly increase because of increasing in investment and some household consumption categories. The policy of improving productivity of oil palm sector wil increase the Rural 2, however it is still almost the same impact with deforestration. It must be considered increasing the palm oil productivity to increase the welfare of poor rural household. The partnership between landless and small scale farmer with and large scale plantation is needed in order to increase the welfare of the rural agricultural household income.
Keywords: forest land conversion, oil palm, income distribution, CGE
COASTAL VULNERABILITY OF BANGLADESH IN TIMES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Md. Zahirul Haque Khan, Md. Nasim Al Azad Khan, Md. Saiful Islam, Md. Raqubul Hasib
* Director, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Junior Specialist, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling,Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Junior Specialist, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Junior Engineer, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling,Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Corresponding author : Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya., Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya., Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya. And Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya.
ABSTRACT
The geographical location and geomorphologic conditions of Bangladesh have made the country one of the most vulnerable due to its extreme vulnerability to cyclones and storm surges with the effects of climate change particularly to Sea Level Rise. In order to understand the seal level rise, the trend of the annual maximum, average and minimum of available time series water level data for three tidal water level stations namely Hiron Point, Khepupara and Rangadia has been carried out applying regression analysis technique. The linear trend for annual maximum indicates increasing trends of 7.8mm/yr, 8.1mm/yr and 5.8mm/yr for Hironpoint, Khepupara and Rangadia respectively along the coast of Bangladesh. One of the objectives of this research project is to use the existing storm surge model for vulnerability assessment of the coastal area and upgrade and updating of available storm surge model with improve modeling system for the coastal region of Bangladesh to investigate the vulnerability of coastal area due to storm surge flooding. The available hydrodynamic model based on MIKE 21 classic system (structured Grid system) for Bay of has been used to assess the combined effects of sea level rise and increase of cyclonic wind speed on cyclonic storm surge level and inundation. Relative Sea Level Rise has also been established considering the global seal level rise in accordance with the Assessment Report-5 of IPCC and local effects based on literature review. The increase of wind speed in the changing climate is considered based on literature review and IPCC reports. The simulation of future climate scenario considers 50cm sea level rise and 10% increase of wind speed in 2050. The simulation result shows that about 19,147 sq. km costal area is inundated by more than 1m water depth due to past cyclone during last 50 years (1960-2009) whereas in 2050, it will be 10% increased owing to sea level rise which indicates that the coast will become more vulnerable. The increase of storm surge height is likely to be in the range from 0.50m to 1.25m in the changing climate.
Keywords: Bay of Bengal Model, Inundation, Sea Level Rise, Subsidence, Tide, Trend Analysis
COFFEE FARMER’S PERSPECTIVE IN RISK AND CERTIFICATION SCHEME
Hanung Ismono1,Fitriani2,Bustanul Arifin1 and Wan Abbas Zakaria1
1Lampung University
2State Polytechnic of Lampung
Corresponding author: Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya.
ABSTRACT
As well known, certification for agriculture commodities broadly develop recently in global market. Global buyer strongly drives the market. Certification is a part to fulfillspecific requirements for their global supply chain. Environment, economic and social issue as sustainability development outlook usually becomes the basis principal in certification. They determine specific requirements for their global supply chain, including in coffee. Indonesia as 5th coffee producer in the world has been response the consequence. Coffee certification introduced in Indonesia since 2007 initiated by global private sector. This study was aims to know coffee farmer’s perspective in risk related with income household and certification view. Survey approached trough 408 coffee farmers as respondent. It was conducted in Tanggamus Regency, Lampung Province in 2012. Method analysis was through by Chi-square and regression model. The result performed that coffee farmer’s perspective in risk significantly linked withcertainty in land property right, decreasing yield production, and environment condition. Environment conditions were include land degradation, water quality, water shortage, and biodiversity loss. In other side, the estimation of farmer profitability in coffee farming had been determined by coffee acreage, education, experiences, and the participation in certification scheme.
Key words: coffee, certification, risk, environment
RELATIVE ROLES OF CLIMATE AND SOCIETAL FACTORS INWATER SCARCITY AND FLOODINGIN SRI LANKA AND MALDIVESAND ITS IMPLICATIONS
Zeenas Yahiya
Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, c/o Mahaweli Authority Maintenance, Digana Village, Rajawella, Sri Lanka.
Corresponding author: Alamat email ini dilindungi dari robot spam. Anda memerlukan Javascript yang aktif untuk melihatnya.
ABSTRACT
Three cases that we have studies in Sri Lanka and Maldives illustrate the socio-economic factors and the role of climate change in water scarcity and flooding. The trade-offs, spatial and time scale issues and climate risk and sustainability shall be discussed. First, at a national and district scale in Sri Lanka, we find that there is a strong relationship between climate based drought incidences and drought disaster declarations and relief payments. The details of how these indices are derived and the cross-comparisons with disasters shall be presented. This case demonstrates that even in a country with political conflict, and with government systems under stress that climate drives drought disaster relief. Second, in a rapidly urbanizing region in Sri Lanka, we find that climate is not a driver of the rise in flooding in a sub-catchment (PingaOya) of the Mahaweli River. While there is a relationship between weather and flooding, the rising frequency of floods is not correlated with climate change. Rather anthropogenic activities and poor enforcement of regulations is the cause of floods. Third, in the Maldives, the new government is seeking to move away from climate dependence by encouraging its people to move from water sustenance through encouraging the young to migrate from the approximately 190 islands they inhabitto the HulhumaleIsland where it is constructing desalination plants to provide water. This means that there is higher level of dependence on water supply services. In November 2014 there was a week-long breakdown of the water supply.