CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND ITS RELATION WITH ADAPTIVE NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
Nestor T. Baguinon
Professor in Forest Ecology University of the Philippines Los Banos
ABSTRACT
Southeast Asia (SEA)is rich in natural resources. Natural resources (NR)are products of evolution henceitsuniquebiota (flora and fauna). Marine natural resourcesinclude pelagic, coral reef and seagrass beds.The estuarylinks both freshwater and marine resources. At the back of mangroves and the estuary are forests.Forests vary with soil, climate, slope and elevation. Biogeographically, SEA is unique being a subset of Indoaustralasia. Itsbiota are mainly descendedfrom Gondwanian ancestors,e.g. fromIndia (e.g. Dipterocarpaceae, primates) and Australia(e.g. Podocarpaceae, parrots).However,montane/mossy forests speciesareof Eurasianorigin (e.g. Fagaceae, rodents). As background, this paper reviews SEAn climate at a millenial scope, i.e. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) c.18,000 yrs B.P. to present. Hunting-gathering Negroids such as Australian aborigines, Papuans, Melanesians, Negritos(Philippines and Malay Peninsula) walked from Africa to archipelagic SEA,c. 50,000 yrs B.P., but about 4,000 yrs B.P.agricultural Austronesians arrived by boat irreversibly convertingforests into human settlements/farms. SEAn climates matchthe culture of ethnic groups.NR providesthem ecosystem services.Climate is thelong-term mean atmospheric condition of anygiven place, weather isits daily expression. Weather extreme is the term when the expression is abnormal, e.g. typhoons. During Glaciations, landbridges connected Continental SEA with Archipelagic SEA.It allowed overland migration of biota+humans. After the LGM, warm Interglaciationabruptly melted glaciers causing sea level rise. Sundaland became archipelagic again.Alternating Glaciation and Interglaciation is being driven by the Milankovitch Cycles. In Glaciationdeserts expand whileforestsretreat. The reverse is true for Warm Interglaciation although short drought episodescan occur as it did inAngkor Wat, Cambodia. Walker Circulation and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) together explain other droughts.Ifugao rice terraces (Payoh) coupled to natural forests (Muyong) circumventdrought uncertaintieswith forestsreliably supplyingwater.Coupled forests+farmsisboth CC adaptation (CCA) and mitigation (CCM). Drought is also a function of theso-called Little Ice Age(LIA). Stoppageof the Thermohaline Circulation initiates LIA.It occurredduringthe years1650, 1770 and 1850 after the Medieval Warming. In 1850, the Industrial Revolution was already spewing greenhouse gases (GHG)hence theAnthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) problem. Atmospheric GHGis mounting as per Mauna Loa, Hawaii Keeling Curve (1960-2015). Aside from ACC,exponential human population growth (HPG) and deforestation (DF) are closely knit problems. Under a business-as-usual scenario, ACC will destroy natural resources and makes people vulnerable to ACC extreme events. This paper presents a systems-approach solutionto ACC, HPG and DF in anylandscape (e.g. reef to ridge) under one adaptive management.It includes participatory landscape benchmarking (GIS as tool), land-use plan (coupled biodiversity corridors+agroforestry), IEC, renewable energy cooperative, M&E, fine-tuning of CCA + CCM.
Keywords: Nature, Man, Austronesian, biosphere, noosphere, anthropocentrism, alienation, anarchy, tragedy of the commons, limits to growth, IEC, capacity-building, GIS benchmark, conflict resolution, land-use plan, knowledge management, biodiversity corridors, agroforestry cooperatives, ecological covenant, adaptive/ecological governance, sustainable economics, M&E, green development fine-tuning.