CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN ISLANDS :IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER SECURITY AND GREEN DEVELOPMENT
Lareef Zubair
Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, c/o Mahaweli Authority Maintenance, Digana Village, Rajawella, Sri Lanka.
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ABSTRACT
Climate variability and change are of profound importance across the Indian Ocean but it has not been studied as much as in other regions;nor has the information been adequately harnessed to support green or sustainable development for its island inhabitants. Through our PEER projects, we have worked towards understanding climate variability from intra-seasonal to decadal time scales for the tropical Indian Ocean. Though studying phenomenon such as the Madden Julian Oscillation we are able to operationalize intra-seasonal climate predictions for Sri Lanka and Maldives. Through studying phenomenon such as El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole, we developed seasonal climate predictions. Through study of climate change projections and decadal variability, our ongoingPEER project shall characterize near-term climate change projections. We also developed tools for monitoring ongoing climate variability. All of this information is provided at a weekly, monthly and seasonal interval to users in the water resources, agriculture, disaster risk and infectious disease sectors in Sri Lanka, Maldives and recently to Comoros. In addition, through other projects, our climate work extends across the Indian Ocean from the littoral islands of East Africa and South-East Asia. We address the use of climate information towards sustainable development in sectors such as Fisheries, Tea and Coconut plantations, Malaria and Dengue risk, Human-Elephant-Conflict, and preserving lagoon ecosystems and fresh water resources.