COASTAL VULNERABILITY OF BANGLADESH IN TIMES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Md. Zahirul Haque Khan, Md. Nasim Al Azad Khan, Md. Saiful Islam, Md. Raqubul Hasib
* Director, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Junior Specialist, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling,Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Junior Specialist, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
Junior Engineer, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, Institute of Water Modelling,Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh.
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ABSTRACT
The geographical location and geomorphologic conditions of Bangladesh have made the country one of the most vulnerable due to its extreme vulnerability to cyclones and storm surges with the effects of climate change particularly to Sea Level Rise. In order to understand the seal level rise, the trend of the annual maximum, average and minimum of available time series water level data for three tidal water level stations namely Hiron Point, Khepupara and Rangadia has been carried out applying regression analysis technique. The linear trend for annual maximum indicates increasing trends of 7.8mm/yr, 8.1mm/yr and 5.8mm/yr for Hironpoint, Khepupara and Rangadia respectively along the coast of Bangladesh. One of the objectives of this research project is to use the existing storm surge model for vulnerability assessment of the coastal area and upgrade and updating of available storm surge model with improve modeling system for the coastal region of Bangladesh to investigate the vulnerability of coastal area due to storm surge flooding. The available hydrodynamic model based on MIKE 21 classic system (structured Grid system) for Bay of has been used to assess the combined effects of sea level rise and increase of cyclonic wind speed on cyclonic storm surge level and inundation. Relative Sea Level Rise has also been established considering the global seal level rise in accordance with the Assessment Report-5 of IPCC and local effects based on literature review. The increase of wind speed in the changing climate is considered based on literature review and IPCC reports. The simulation of future climate scenario considers 50cm sea level rise and 10% increase of wind speed in 2050. The simulation result shows that about 19,147 sq. km costal area is inundated by more than 1m water depth due to past cyclone during last 50 years (1960-2009) whereas in 2050, it will be 10% increased owing to sea level rise which indicates that the coast will become more vulnerable. The increase of storm surge height is likely to be in the range from 0.50m to 1.25m in the changing climate.
Keywords: Bay of Bengal Model, Inundation, Sea Level Rise, Subsidence, Tide, Trend Analysis